The slowdown in world trade has been much worse than previously reported, with global trade volumes plateauing over the past 18 months amid a rise in protectionism, according to a new report.
The analysis illustrates why business leaders such as GE’s Jeff Immelt are anxious about trade and the world economy as politicians such as US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump rail against ‘globalism’ and promise to erect new barriers to commerce.
Policymakers and economists have grown increasingly concerned about a slowdown in global trade growth. But according to the latest report by Global Trade Alert, which monitors protectionism around the world, that growth has disappeared altogether with the volume of goods traded around the world stagnant since January 2015.
Such a prolonged period of no growth is rare in economic history, said Simon Evenett, professor of international trade and economic development at Switzerland’s University of St Gallen and the report’s lead author. ‘It really doesn’t happen very much outside of recessions,’ he said.
The report is based on data collected by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, which publishes a much-watched monthly report on global trade volumes. Its latest data, for April of this year, shows that both exports and imports globally remain below where they were in January 2015 and have moved very little in the period since then.
This post was published at David Stockmans Contra Corner on July 15, 2016.
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