Wall Street’s manic melt-up is pushing stock prices ever deeper into the realm of insanity, and nowhere is that more evident than in the Russell 2000 (RUT). At today’s level of 1525, it is now up by 312% from the post-crisis bottom and nearly 80% from the prior tippy-top peak in May 2007.
More significantly, the RUT has risen by 6.8% per year since January 2000 while domestic final sales have increased from $10.6 trillion to $20.0 trillion or by just 3.8% per annum. That is, the RUT index has gained at nearly twice the growth rate of nominal domestic final sales.
Surely it doesn’t take an MBA from Harvard to recognize that a gap that wide stretching over 17 years is deeply suspect. For instance, had this broad-based basket of domestic stocks risen in parallel with domestic sales, which over time they must, the index would today stand at 935 or nearly 40% below the current price level.
This post was published at David Stockmans Contra Corner on Tuesday, December 12th, 2017.