Donald Trump says a lot of whacko things, and his recent wild pitches about defaulting on the national debt and replacing Yellen because she is not a Republican sound as if they were coming right out of his wild man wheelhouse. Certainly these statements have gotten mainstream financial journalists and editorial writers in high dudgeon.
Said the NYT editorial page about Trump’s observation that if things got bad enough he’d seek to negotiate ‘discounts’ on Uncle Sam’s towering debt,
Such remarks by a major presidential candidate have no modern precedent. The United States government is able to borrow money at very low interest rates because Treasury securities are regarded as a safe investment, and any cracks in investor confidence have a long history of costing American taxpayers a lot of money.
Well, now. These ‘very low rates’ could not have anything to do with the fact that the Fed has vacuumed-up $3.5 trillion of Treasury debt and its close substitute in GSE securities since September 2008. Apparently, the law of supply and demand has been suspended until further notice – -except for the fact that when Bernanke even hinted that the Fed might sell-down some of its grossly bloated balance sheet in April 2013 treasury yields erupted higher in the infamous taper tantrum.
The fact is, ultra low rates on Uncle Sam’s mountainous debt haveeverything to do with central bank manipulation of interest rates; and ‘confidence’ in Washington’s fiscal rectitude is but an empty platitude.
This post was published at David Stockmans Contra Corner on May 5, 2016.
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